Nobody knows for sure how many LDS members in the United States voted for Trump in 2020. One poll in Arizona indicates that 76 percent of Church members there said they would vote for Trump. Trump won Utah with 58 percent of the vote and Idaho with 64 percent of the vote. It is probably safe to say that Trump won somewhere between 60 and 70 percent of the U.S. LDS vote.
It is also safe to say that Trump was less popular than past Republican presidential candidates with LDS members. President Bush received 80 percent of the LDS vote in 2004, and Mitt Romney received 78 percent in 2012. It is probably worth noting that Trump was less popular with outspoken LDS politicians and intellectual figures than any recent Republican.
What does this mean for the Church and its relationship with the Republican party? Well, some hopeful progressives are overplaying LDS opposition to Trump and the Republican party, in my opinion. Trump only won 45 percent of the vote in Utah in 2016, but he got 58 percent in 2020. Utah’s congressional delegation, which had one Democrat, now has only Republicans. Idaho is safely Republican. But it is also true that Biden got the highest percentage of Democratic votes for a presidential candidate in Utah since LBJ in 1964. And of course Biden won Nevada and Arizona, states with large LDS populations. So, progressives have some reasons to be optimistic.
To understand the Church’s future with the Republican party, we must understand that there are four ideological trends within the party. Right now, the Trump/nationalist trend, which is the trend least compatible with LDS voters, is in ascendance. But that could change, and the Republican party could become friendlier to the majority LDS view.
Let’s take a look at these four different groups within the Republican party.
- The Trump/nationalist Republicans. Current promoters are Trump/Josh Hawley/Matt Gaetz and many newly elected Republicans. (Ideological heir, Pat Buchanan)
- The moderate Republicans. Current promoters are Mitt Romney and many northeastern governors. (Ideological heirs: Rockefeller, Gerald Ford, both Bush presidents, Bob Dole, McCain).
- The traditional conservative Republicans. Current promoters are Ted Cruz, Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis and many other members of Congress, both in the Senate and the House. (Ideological heirs: Ronald Reagan and Jesse Helms).
- The liberty Republicans. Current promoters are Rand Paul, Mike Lee and several House members. (Ideological heirs: Robert Taft and Ron Paul).
(Full disclosure: I am firmly in the liberty Republican camp, as long-time readers will know).
You cannot understand American politics without understanding that the Trump phenomenon is new in the Republican party. Many of the Trump positions have, in fact, long been opposed by the majority of Republicans. And when you consider that Trump’s aggressive and overbearing public persona is the opposite of how most LDS politicians act, it is easy to understand why LDS voters have turned away (somewhat) from a Republican party dominated by Trump.
Where do these four groups stand on the issues? When we analyze ideology and political attitudes, it is also clear that Trump’s nationalist strain of Republicanism has big differences with other strains of Republicanism. And there are big differences between Trump and some of the stances taken by the Church or the majority of Church members. See below to see what I mean.
(I give the four different groups and the Church’s position numbers from one to five. Five means complete agreement, one means complete disagreement. Please note that the Church has not taken a public stance on many political issues).
5 means complete agreement, one means complete disagreement.
Politicians should always speak politely and be good role models in public discourse. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 5. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 1.
Politicians should passionately fight for what they believe in public and avoid compromise. Church position: 3. Moderate Republicans: 2. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 5.
The United States should increase legal immigration and follow a “compassionate” immigration policy. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 5. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 1.
The United States should promote free trade. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 3. Trump Republicans: 1.
The United States should join and actively participate in international organizations like the UN, the World Bank, NATO, etc. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 5. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 3. Trump Republicans: 1.
The United States should do more to fight anthropogenic global warming. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 1.
Gay marriage and the transgender movement are negatives for society. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 2. Liberty Republicans: 3. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 3.
Abortion, especially late term abortion, should be illegal. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 2. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 5.
The welfare state is a good thing and society should have more government spending on public assistance. Church position: 1. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 5.
The United States urgently needs to cut government spending. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 1.
Taxes are too high in the United States. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 3.
Woke culture, socialism, political correctness and SJWs should be peacefully but forcefully opposed. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 5.
Politicians should support and nominate conservative judges endorsed by groups like the Federalist Society. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 5.
The United States should end or severely decrease foreign troop deployments. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 1. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 1. Trump Republicans: 5.
All government mandates regarding COVID-19 infringe on liberty and should be opposed. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 1. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 3. Trump Republicans: 5.
Some drugs should be legalized for recreational use. Church position: 1. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 4. Traditional conservative Republicans: 1. Trump Republicans: 3.
As you look at these issues, it is clear that Trump Republicans’ positions on many issues are at odds with other Republican groups — and the Church. But there are also surprising areas of agreement. This is one reason that Trump was able to garner such broad support among Republicans (more than 90 percent approval in most polls).
What direction will the Republican party take in the future? The party cannot reject Trumpism and survive, regardless of what many readers and many anti-Trumpers would like to believe. Trump may very well run again in 2024. And his brand of populism has changed the Republican party for the foreseeable future. And Trump has been a very positive force for Republicans in motivating many working class groups to become Republican activists. In many areas of the country, the Trump Republican party is seen as the working class party much more than the Democrats. Trump has successfully championed the “forgotten man and woman” in a way that will be helpful to the future of the Republican party.
Meanwhile, it is true that Trump’s brand of Republicanism is less popular among Church members, especially young Church members. But as I said above, the numbers show that Church members still favor a Trump Republican party to the available alternatives. How will that play out in the years ahead? In my opinion, it depends more than anything else on whether a populist movement can be 1)more polite, civil and genteel and 2)kinder to immigrants and refugees. Those seem to be the primary factors turning LDS voters against Trump.