Nobody knows for sure how many LDS members in the United States voted for Trump in 2020. One poll in Arizona indicates that 76 percent of Church members there said they would vote for Trump. Trump won Utah with 58 percent of the vote and Idaho with 64 percent of the vote. It is probably safe to say that Trump won somewhere between 60 and 70 percent of the U.S. LDS vote.
It is also safe to say that Trump was less popular than past Republican presidential candidates with LDS members. President Bush received 80 percent of the LDS vote in 2004, and Mitt Romney received 78 percent in 2012. It is probably worth noting that Trump was less popular with outspoken LDS politicians and intellectual figures than any recent Republican.
What does this mean for the Church and its relationship with the Republican party? Well, some hopeful progressives are overplaying LDS opposition to Trump and the Republican party, in my opinion. Trump only won 45 percent of the vote in Utah in 2016, but he got 58 percent in 2020. Utah’s congressional delegation, which had one Democrat, now has only Republicans. Idaho is safely Republican. But it is also true that Biden got the highest percentage of Democratic votes for a presidential candidate in Utah since LBJ in 1964. And of course Biden won Nevada and Arizona, states with large LDS populations. So, progressives have some reasons to be optimistic.
To understand the Church’s future with the Republican party, we must understand that there are four ideological trends within the party. Right now, the Trump/nationalist trend, which is the trend least compatible with LDS voters, is in ascendance. But that could change, and the Republican party could become friendlier to the majority LDS view.
Let’s take a look at these four different groups within the Republican party.
- The Trump/nationalist Republicans. Current promoters are Trump/Josh Hawley/Matt Gaetz and many newly elected Republicans. (Ideological heir, Pat Buchanan)
- The moderate Republicans. Current promoters are Mitt Romney and many northeastern governors. (Ideological heirs: Rockefeller, Gerald Ford, both Bush presidents, Bob Dole, McCain).
- The traditional conservative Republicans. Current promoters are Ted Cruz, Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis and many other members of Congress, both in the Senate and the House. (Ideological heirs: Ronald Reagan and Jesse Helms).
- The liberty Republicans. Current promoters are Rand Paul, Mike Lee and several House members. (Ideological heirs: Robert Taft and Ron Paul).
(Full disclosure: I am firmly in the liberty Republican camp, as long-time readers will know).
You cannot understand American politics without understanding that the Trump phenomenon is new in the Republican party. Many of the Trump positions have, in fact, long been opposed by the majority of Republicans. And when you consider that Trump’s aggressive and overbearing public persona is the opposite of how most LDS politicians act, it is easy to understand why LDS voters have turned away (somewhat) from a Republican party dominated by Trump.
Where do these four groups stand on the issues? When we analyze ideology and political attitudes, it is also clear that Trump’s nationalist strain of Republicanism has big differences with other strains of Republicanism. And there are big differences between Trump and some of the stances taken by the Church or the majority of Church members. See below to see what I mean.
(I give the four different groups and the Church’s position numbers from one to five. Five means complete agreement, one means complete disagreement. Please note that the Church has not taken a public stance on many political issues).
5 means complete agreement, one means complete disagreement.
Politicians should always speak politely and be good role models in public discourse. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 5. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 1.
Politicians should passionately fight for what they believe in public and avoid compromise. Church position: 3. Moderate Republicans: 2. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 5.
The United States should increase legal immigration and follow a “compassionate” immigration policy. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 5. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 1.
The United States should promote free trade. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 3. Trump Republicans: 1.
The United States should join and actively participate in international organizations like the UN, the World Bank, NATO, etc. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 5. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 3. Trump Republicans: 1.
The United States should do more to fight anthropogenic global warming. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 1.
Gay marriage and the transgender movement are negatives for society. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 2. Liberty Republicans: 3. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 3.
Abortion, especially late term abortion, should be illegal. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 2. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 5.
The welfare state is a good thing and society should have more government spending on public assistance. Church position: 1. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 5.
The United States urgently needs to cut government spending. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 1.
Taxes are too high in the United States. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 4. Trump Republicans: 3.
Woke culture, socialism, political correctness and SJWs should be peacefully but forcefully opposed. Church position: 5. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 5.
Politicians should support and nominate conservative judges endorsed by groups like the Federalist Society. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 5. Trump Republicans: 5.
The United States should end or severely decrease foreign troop deployments. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 1. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 1. Trump Republicans: 5.
All government mandates regarding COVID-19 infringe on liberty and should be opposed. Church position: n/a. Moderate Republicans: 1. Liberty Republicans: 5. Traditional conservative Republicans: 3. Trump Republicans: 5.
Some drugs should be legalized for recreational use. Church position: 1. Moderate Republicans: 3. Liberty Republicans: 4. Traditional conservative Republicans: 1. Trump Republicans: 3.
As you look at these issues, it is clear that Trump Republicans’ positions on many issues are at odds with other Republican groups — and the Church. But there are also surprising areas of agreement. This is one reason that Trump was able to garner such broad support among Republicans (more than 90 percent approval in most polls).
What direction will the Republican party take in the future? The party cannot reject Trumpism and survive, regardless of what many readers and many anti-Trumpers would like to believe. Trump may very well run again in 2024. And his brand of populism has changed the Republican party for the foreseeable future. And Trump has been a very positive force for Republicans in motivating many working class groups to become Republican activists. In many areas of the country, the Trump Republican party is seen as the working class party much more than the Democrats. Trump has successfully championed the “forgotten man and woman” in a way that will be helpful to the future of the Republican party.
Meanwhile, it is true that Trump’s brand of Republicanism is less popular among Church members, especially young Church members. But as I said above, the numbers show that Church members still favor a Trump Republican party to the available alternatives. How will that play out in the years ahead? In my opinion, it depends more than anything else on whether a populist movement can be 1)more polite, civil and genteel and 2)kinder to immigrants and refugees. Those seem to be the primary factors turning LDS voters against Trump.
“Abortion, especially late term abortion, should be illegal. Church position: 5.”
Actually, the Church takes no position on abortion legislation. The Church issues guidelines for its members, but that is all. It would be well for Church members to actually read the official statement on abortion.
I cannot be certain, but I tend to feel that some U.S. Latter-day Saints may have voted for Mr. Trump without endorsing his policies or approaches — they may simply have felt that he was a better choice than his opponent and his opponent’s party.
As a former Republican, I will never go back if either the Trump type or the so-called Liberty type are in charge (I have a longstanding beef with Mike Lee that predated his Captain Moroni atrocity.) My views more closely match the Moderate type, but having seen and experienced the hyper extremism of our local Republican caucus (i live one county south of you) that I have no delusions on ever being able to return. So for now count me as an active Church member who is profoundly grateful to have never voted for Trump, and am likewise grateful for the Colorado option of registering Independent!
Ji, I really don’t want this post to be a debate on abortion. I am actually relatively moderate on abortion and am more concerned with late term abortion than abortion in the first trimester. I think it would be impractical and unwise to declare that life begins at conception and to try to make illegal all abortions after conception as public policy. But just for informational purposes, I believe it is safe to say that the “church position” is against the widespread legalization of abortion as it exists today in the Western world. The church position can be read here:
https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/manual/gospel-topics/abortion?lang=eng
The official Church position includes two conference talks, one in Oct. 2008, and the other in April 1985 in which Pres. Nelson speaks out forcefully against the legalization of abortion. The Church position is not just about personal choices. President Nelson has made it clear that he is against the legalization of this practice, which he believes has resulted in unnecessary deaths and which he calls a “war on the unborn.”
JI, regarding your other point that sometimes people just vote without endorsing the person or the policies, of course you are correct. Sometimes political analysts try to make simple things too complex. I know people who voted for Trump just because they knew him through “The Apprentice.” I know other people who just vote for whoever has an R next to their name. I know other people who didn’t vote for Trump just because of his personality and have no idea where he stands on the issues. So, yes.
Anonymous, even though you live in that inferior county south of me, I still think you make a good point. 🙂 I know a lot of people who agree with your position (even though it is not my position — I think the Republican party is not nearly extreme enough on the important issues.) Take care!
I am reminded that in the Saints narrative, there was a time that dominant Utah thought held that one could not simultaneously be a Republican and a church member in good standing. 🙂
I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020. Nor did I vote for his opponents. I can understand people who voted for the lesser of two evils, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it, and in retrospect I don’t regret my decision.
The Access Hollywood tape convinced me that Trump was not deserving of my vote. (See https://www.deseret.com/2016/10/8/20598212/in-our-opinion-donald-trump-should-resign-his-candidacy#republican-presidential-candidate-donald-trump-speaks-during-a-campaign-rally-wednesday-oct-5-2016-in-henderson-nev). Today’s leaked tape with the Georgia Secretary of State (https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/donald-trump-raffensperger-phone-call-election/) confirms my original judgement and some of my worst suspicions.
Going forward, as the above post makes clear, there are potential areas of agreement and disagreement on some of Trump’s policies. The chaos, impulsiveness, vulgarity, hubris, self-centeredness, and general craziness, however, has got to go.
Or, is this the Church position on abortion?
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/official-statement/abortion
The words “official statement” are part of the URL title, and at that site we read,
The Church has not favored or opposed legislative proposals or public demonstrations concerning abortion.
Individual members may be opposed to abortion, even President (then Elder) Nelson in 2008 and 1985, but I think it is usurping authority to declare that the Church feels abortion should be illegal — the Church simply has not made that declaration. Rather, the Church teaches its members to avoid abortion. Making abortion illegal would require legislative proposals, and the Church has not favored any such proposals.
Ji, I understand that position, but I read it differently than you do. The Church favors a general policy against legalizing abortion without favoring specific legislative proposals. The Church usually takes moral positions, not legal positions, but from a moral standpoint the Church is against legalizing abortion. The Church is not a lobbying group and of course there are risks to the Church’s tax exempt status in the Church favoring specific legislative proposals. There is also the issue that if the Church is a worldwide organization and there are hundreds of potential legislative proposals going around where the Church might be asked to take a position. So instead of going in that direction, the Church has made a general statement of opposition to abortion and left it at that.
Ji, I like the way you make arguments and I like the way you think, but we will have to agree to disagree on this one. All the best to you, and I hope 2021 is better than 2020 (it can’t be worse, can it?)
I think that many of the moderate and conservative Republicans are changing their view on foreign troop deployments. World wide security has not been a disaster and instead peace deals in the Middle East are being made. Trump has convinced some Republicans, including me, that there are other ways to promote global security.
El oso, good to hear. This is why it is so painful for me to watch the Trump derangement syndrome among many LDS commentators. Regardless of what you think about Trump, he has undeniably done some good things as president, including making many Republicans question our endless wars all around the world. He should get more credit for that.
At the end of the day, there’s no beef anybody (including me) has with Trump that I don’t also have with at least two or three other presidents. He has not been the outsize threat to … well … anything that he’s been made out to be. That doesn’t make him good. But it does make him not-as-bad-as-people-think.
Lattertarian, exactly.
“The welfare state is a good thing and society should have more government spending on public assistance. Church position: 1. Moderate Republicans: 4. Liberty Republicans: 1. Traditional conservative Republicans: 2. Trump Republicans: 5.”
Can you provide sources to support your assertion that Trump Republicans believe this? I think it is the complete opposite–Trump Republicans want more personal responsibility and self-sufficiency rather than more government dependency. TR’s want smaller government not more!
No president has ever been perfect in his personal or public life. But, as we were reminded in General Conference, imperfect people are all God has to work with. A better way to measure a president is does he want to preserve our liberties and our nation, or does he want to away our liberties, destroy our nation and join some form of global alliance? Does he put the USA first or the interests of other nations (often our enemies) first?
It’s a sad day when the LDS people freely choose bondage over liberty.
And I’m of the opinion that “Moderate Republicans” are more properly called “RINO”S” as they are so often aligned with the opposition who want to destroy this country.
Rozy, this is a very good comment. Regarding the welfare state issue, there is a new tendency in the Republican party to want more government, not less, and it is directly related to Trump’s presidency. You see this in the rhetoric of Tucker Carlson, Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio. Trump always said he would never reform Social Security or Medicare, and he is the first Republican president since the 1960s to say this. Meanwhile, Trump has supported massive increases in government spending.
I think you are correct that there are some individual Trump supporters like you and many of your friends who would prefer a smaller government. But the Trump/populist movement is really about more government, not less, and this is a very unfortunate side effect of Trumpism. We see that the federal budget has soared through the roof with Trump, just as it did with Bush and with Obama, unfortunately. But Trump is even worse that Bush and Obama, if you can believe it.
Here is the evidence:
https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1970_2020USb_18s2li011mcn_G0f
We are heading toward a $3 trillion budget deficit in one year with Trump. One year!!!!
If Trump were serious about taking on spending, he would have vetoed spending bills. He complained about all of them, but he did not veto a single spending bill.
Don’t get me wrong — I voted for Trump because he was better than the alternative, but when it comes to spending he did a very, very poor job.
I agree with much of the rest of your comment. Thank you.
I’d add that Trump has been quietly awful on guns, too. His own rhetoric has been … uneven, leaving the actions of his administration to do the talking for him, and none of that has been good.
Trump’s saving grace has been judges. He leaves behind a judiciary broadly skeptical of “creative” government-growth solutions, if not openly hostile. That’ll be with us for the next 20 years or so, I hope. And that’s a very good thing.