On the Republican side, recent data indicates Mitt Romney is inching up in popularity in the crucial states of Iowa and New Hampshire. He has 24 percent of the vote in NH, behind McCain but solidly ahead of Giuliani. In Iowa, he is third with 14 percent to McCain’s 26 percent and Giuliani’s 19 percent.
On a nationwide basis, Romney’s support has slowly been inching up, as a look at these results and this graph indicate. Reports from the field indicate Romney has the most efficient campaigning organization.
The Bloggernacle loves to play down Romney’s chance in this election, but I don’t think that’s wise. If I were a betting man, which I’m not, I’d put good money on him winning the Republican nomination. The general election is unfortunately another story, however.
UPDATE: This poll shows Romney solidly ahead in NH.
I agree that Romney has a much better chance at the nomination than the polls indicate. He’s got the money, infrastructure, endorsements, and significant establishment support. But I would still be hestitant to say he’s likely to win the nomination.
And why isn’t it wise to downplay his chances? I think downplaying expectations is generally a good move in politics. As I like Romney, I hope to promote him but not oversell him.
He only has 10% in S.C. though.
And Fred Thompson is the giant not yet in the room.
I think we’ll see Romney move up some more after the upcoming Republican debate. And I have a feeling we’ll see McCain continue to drop after that same debate.
I’m not quite sure how to interpret this (https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?eventSelect=coupon_27&evID=coupon_27&updateList=true&showExpired=false)
but it looks like (according to intrade) that Guilina has 31, McCain has 20, and Romney 15 – it you were a betting man, of course.
If Romney would grow some backbone, and quit pandering to some shadow elephant in the room, I think his chances would improve.
His latest bright idea on immigration: do away with several of the family unification visa categories. And this is the way we support families?
I personally speculate he will win it all and the entire nation will love him, too much actually.
I like Fred Thompson. He was believable in “In the Line of Fire” and played the crusty New York City DA very well. One of my favorite quotes to recycle in project management meetings is “the Russians don’t take a dump without a plan, son”, from The Hunt for Red October.
But playing the candidate — and winning the nomination — will almost ensure a President Clinton II.
Right now I have a feeling any Republican nomination will ensure a Democratic President. Smiley Face.
Jjohnsen, if you look at the electoral college situation, I would have to agree with you. There are those who argue Rudy helps the Republicans most because he puts NY, NJ, Pennsylvania and perhaps even California in play. I just don’t buy that because so much of presidential voting is about group dynamics and in the end it will be difficult for a Republican to win in a heavily Democratic state like those I mentioned. Of course, a lot can change between now and nov. 2008. I’m keeping up the hope you will not have a smiley face then and that I will. 🙂
One other point: I will support Giuliani if he is the Republican candidate, but my biggest fear about him is that the media has all kinds of dirt that it is waiting to release in October 2008. I have a feeling it is the kind of dirt that will make Mr. and Mrs. Average voter turn against him. Some of it may just be things we already know: the details regarding his second divorce played over and over again, Giuliani in drag, angry Giuliani fighting with reporters, stuff like that. My feeling is that the more Mr. and Mrs. Average Voter get to know Romney the more they will like him, but with Rudy that will not be the case.
It goes without saying that I am concerned about Rudy on social issues as well. The abortion issue is not my biggest concern — I think Rudy will support judges like Roberts and Alito. But his lack of support for the FMA and his disdain for social conservatives are really worrisome to me.
On the other hand, as I have posted here, I think Romney is making a big mistake by becoming the anti-immigrant candidate. I don’t know what more I can say about that — I agree with Mark B’s comment #5 that Romney’s position is indefensible. I guess I would say that I agree with Romney on about 90 percent of the issues, and on immigration I disagree strongly. But I agree with Giuliani and McCain on 60-70 percent, so I’m in Romney’s camp.
I agree with you about the immigration stuff, it could easily become hateful. Giuliani seems so far from the other Republicans on so many issues. I seriously doubt most members in Utah would vote for him if he didn’t have the R next to his name.
With your 90% versus 60-70% it sounds like you’re in the same situation most voters are, picking the least of all evils. I took a poll somewhere that matches you up with the candidate that most closely resembles your views. My closest match was one of the more obscure Dem candidates, and even then I only matched 60%.
It’s very depressing.
Giuliani’s big weakness is foreign policy. But in any case, despite being the leader now in many ways, Giuliani will be a fading star. McCain has gained in many of the key states (although his debate performance might hurt him but arguably it’ll hurt Giuliani more)
Romney looks good after tonight but arguably still has big negatives.
The giant in the room is Fred Thompson. I think it’d be amazingly hard for any current candidate to beat him. The best the rest can hope for is that Newt enters in with Thompson and takes some of the shine off Thompson. But honestly at this stage I think it’s a race for VP and not a race for President.
Clark,
You keep mentioning him everywhere and all the time, but I have to ask —
What’s so great about Fred Thompson?
I consider him to be something of a buffoon. Are you excited about him for any other reason than that you think he’s more electable. That is, that he has some sort of GWB-like common touch?
Bill, in Clark’s defense, a lot of the national media agrees with him and says Thompson will gain momentum if he enters. I have heard him on radio interview programs, and, franky, I’m not that impressed. I think he will look old and bumbling in a debate against any of the leading Dems. Just my opinion.
What exactly is Thompson waiting for before he enters the race, a few more candidates to get weeded out?
If I were to go for someone in the Republican camp, Id go for Gulianni, Mitt has just disappointed me way too much, has switched to policy’s just to atract the far right, and I don’t see anything righteous on that. I just wish he would just stick with he’s business persona, and stop flip-flopping.