It looks like Florida will be, as many predicted, a crucial state in the Republican campaign. My prediction is Romney will win.
This is not just wishful thinking. Take a look at this page. Romney is surging at the right time, just as he did in Michigan, which he won handily. A lot of Fred Thompson supporters will support Romney. McCain and Giuliani are splitting the “moderate” Republican vote and Romney is seen as representing conservatives. Unlike in New Hampshire, for example, only registered Republicans can vote for Republican candidates in Florida, so McCain is unlikely to get the support from Dems and independents he garnered in New Hampshire.
I’ve got Romney signs in my front yard and Romney bumper stickers on my cars. I have called several dozen of my closest friends to urge them to vote (for Romney, of course). Most of my neighbors are Democrats, although one guy who just moved in down the street has a Rudy sign in his front yard.
Cuban-Americans dominate Miami politics and make up 10 percent of Florida Republican primary voters. Interestingly, they are completely splintered on whom to support in Florida. Very few of them support McCain, but a lot of them support Rudy and Huckabee. Romney has made some gaffes in Miami, where you have to drink Cuban coffee and you have to know the local lingo. He ended one campaign speech with a pro-Castro slogan in Spanish (big, big mistake). But he’s made up for that with many trips to Miami to woo the local big-wigs.
A pretty large number of local Cuban-American leaders have endorsed Romney. I went to one campaign event where they emphasized again and again that Romney is a “clean” candidate. I think many of them fear the Clinton machine will be leaking dirt right about October 1, and they figure Romney has less dirt than his rivals.
The Romney campaign has not come up much at Church, thankfully. I always try to get to Sacrament early, and just last Sunday I was chatting with one guy who knows I’m a Romney supporter while a guy who is from Wyoming walked by. My friend said to the guy from Wyoming, “hey it looks like Wyoming really came through for Romney,” and the guy from Wyoming said, “yeah, people in my state are idiots when it comes to politics.” That was my cue to bow out of the conversation. Nothing destroys the Spirit as much as contentious political discussions at Church.
The Florida primary is Jan. 29. Early voting started Jan. 14. My wife and I walked over to City Hall to vote on Saturday. Lots of people have already voted by absentee ballot. I forget the exact figure, but something like half of Floridians will have already voted before Jan. 29. I’ll check in again next week and let you know how things are going in Miami.