It looks like Florida will be, as many predicted, a crucial state in the Republican campaign. My prediction is Romney will win.
This is not just wishful thinking. Take a look at this page. Romney is surging at the right time, just as he did in Michigan, which he won handily. A lot of Fred Thompson supporters will support Romney. McCain and Giuliani are splitting the “moderate” Republican vote and Romney is seen as representing conservatives. Unlike in New Hampshire, for example, only registered Republicans can vote for Republican candidates in Florida, so McCain is unlikely to get the support from Dems and independents he garnered in New Hampshire.
I’ve got Romney signs in my front yard and Romney bumper stickers on my cars. I have called several dozen of my closest friends to urge them to vote (for Romney, of course). Most of my neighbors are Democrats, although one guy who just moved in down the street has a Rudy sign in his front yard.
Cuban-Americans dominate Miami politics and make up 10 percent of Florida Republican primary voters. Interestingly, they are completely splintered on whom to support in Florida. Very few of them support McCain, but a lot of them support Rudy and Huckabee. Romney has made some gaffes in Miami, where you have to drink Cuban coffee and you have to know the local lingo. He ended one campaign speech with a pro-Castro slogan in Spanish (big, big mistake). But he’s made up for that with many trips to Miami to woo the local big-wigs.
A pretty large number of local Cuban-American leaders have endorsed Romney. I went to one campaign event where they emphasized again and again that Romney is a “clean” candidate. I think many of them fear the Clinton machine will be leaking dirt right about October 1, and they figure Romney has less dirt than his rivals.
The Romney campaign has not come up much at Church, thankfully. I always try to get to Sacrament early, and just last Sunday I was chatting with one guy who knows I’m a Romney supporter while a guy who is from Wyoming walked by. My friend said to the guy from Wyoming, “hey it looks like Wyoming really came through for Romney,” and the guy from Wyoming said, “yeah, people in my state are idiots when it comes to politics.” That was my cue to bow out of the conversation. Nothing destroys the Spirit as much as contentious political discussions at Church.
The Florida primary is Jan. 29. Early voting started Jan. 14. My wife and I walked over to City Hall to vote on Saturday. Lots of people have already voted by absentee ballot. I forget the exact figure, but something like half of Floridians will have already voted before Jan. 29. I’ll check in again next week and let you know how things are going in Miami.
Thanks for the dispatch. I will vote for Romney in the Arizona primary. Arizona is also a winner-take-all primary so hopefully Romney will win here, too.
Thanks, Geoff. With each passing day (and each time another candidate drops out), I find myself becoming more of a Romney supporter. The only thing keeping me from locking in a vote for Romney is the thought of enjoying four years of tabloid reporting of Bill Clinton as the 1st spouse and the continuation of his extra-marital exploits.
Thanks for the update Geoff and keep them coming. I’ve added your feed just for the Romney coverage.
CC and Brian D, it looks like Arizona is a lock for McCain anyway based on the polls I have seen. But get out there and vote!
Geoff, I’m not sure I trust or believe those polls. John McCain is not well liked or loved by most Republicans in the state. Personally, I am surprised that he hasn’t crossed party lines yet.
Geoff B,
That Arizona poll from yesterday included Fred Thompson at 9% and had undecideds at 20%. Plus I heard on the radio that it was likely conducted by students. Also, I think Romney’s Mormon bloc in Arizona is more dedicated than the average Arizona republican base, so Romney might have a lot more people show up to vote for him than the polls would indicate. Just look at Nevada. Romney was up by about 15% according to the polls, then a lot of Mormons showed up and gave Romney a 40% blowout lead.
In other words, I think Romney as a chance in Arizona, especially if he wins Florida.
I’ve been saying that Romney will win Florida for about two weeks now, his message and attitude are great, he’s the kind of politician that we need. I believe he will be in the White House as President.
The people in Florida will not appreciate Rudy sitting out the fight and trying to use their state as a launching pad into Super Tuesday, no one likes to be used.
His strategy of betting the farm isn’t inspiring anyone to use their vote on someone that could lose or pull the same strategy to use against the Clintons.
Huck is out, Rudy is out. McCain and Romney will fight it out and they are different enough that this will be very interesting to watch.
I understand that a some of the conservative radio talk shows did informal polling of their callers and Romney was picking up much more of the Thompson vote than was McCain – especially in Florida.
This is a little off the specific topic of this post, but can anyone point me to a site that differentiates the candidates’ stands on “the issues” – taxes, abortion, national defense, immigration, economic policy, etc.? For example, I frequently hear that people are voting for McCain because he is perceived as being the best candidate on national defense. Sure he has an identifiable record, but how different is his platform from the other (remaining) candidates?
i love early voting, I plan on casting my ballot today at lunch. In Utah you have to be registered Republican to vote in that primary, so as an independent I guess I’m voting in the Democratic primary.
It’s tough when politicians don’t know what to pretend to be.
Jjohnsen, re #9, in this particular case Romney was not pretending about anything. He really, really doesn’t speak Spanish (he went on a French mission) so when somebody told him to say something in Spanish, he said it without knowing what it meant. I’ve discussed Romney’s “lack of authenticity” before and agree with you that he’s made some big mistakes in that regard, but that wasn’t the case here.
Interesting report from a buddy of mine (not a Church member) who just called me two hours ago to tell me he has studied all of the candidates and decided to support Romney. He was leaning toward Rudy and basically determined that Rudy is unelectable. Then, he saw Romney on TV and was mightily impressed. He believes Romney can beat the Clinton machine. I guess this shows you campaigning and talking to your friends does make a difference — he started looking at Romney because I suggested he do so.
I predict that should Romney win Florida, then the reporting will claim that that was only to be expected and that the real news is how well McCain did coming in 2nd or 3rd or whereever. Whenever Romney wins, somehow it doesn’t count, and should he prevail in the coming weeks, that’s not going to change. McCain is the Republican that reporters like best, similiar to how Lieberman is the Democrat that Republicans like best.
John M, I agree with you. It is amazing how little attention Romney’s caucus wins in Wyoming and Nevada have gotten, for example, especially since he destroyed his rivals in both states.
Florida is winner-take-all, which means Romney would get all 57 delegates if he wins.
As for Feb. 5, it seems clear to me that it will potentially be a big day for McCain. But we should not ignore that Romney is doing a lot better in a lot of places where he was far behind two months ago. I think Romney will take California and Utah (winner take all) and will get some delegates in other states like NY, NJ and Pennsylvania. I would not be surprised if Romney still had a substantial lead in delegates in February.
Florida will decide who the nominee is. I think Romney is making a comeback but it’s still pretty close in Florida. Too close to call.
I have no idea who will win in Florida. I do know a lot of people who voted early for Thompson who are annoyed, though. I’ve been cheering them up with talk of a brokered convention.
This is the fourth presidential election I’ve participated in (in one way or another: I was the youngest volunteer in my county in 1996) and the sixth one I’ve watched, and I always end out feeling increasingly queasy and miserable once the primaries start and then really glad when the whole thing is over.
Mondo cool, I suggest the following “test your opinions and see which candidates you agree with most” sites (use them all – each one has problems):
http://www.selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
http://glassbooth.org/gbapp/index.php/Topic
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/projects/ongoing/select_a_candidate/poll.php?race_id=13
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/candidate-match-game.htm
http://www.dehp.net/candidate/
There’s a general site:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Quiz.htm
They have detailed information (in the form of quotes) from every candidate.
Also, if you go to various special-interest group websites, they usually have scorecards for the candidates.
Update on something that is probably wrong from my original post: I said about half of people will vote early or absentee. That figure is probably much lower, probably no more than 10-15 percent. That is really only the case in local elections (city, county) where turnout is lower.