This article in the New Republic is the best analysis I’ve seen yet as to how the Republican nomination battle is likely to turn out. To sum up, it looks increasingly likely that Giuliani, Romney and Thompson will all have hundreds of delegates. If none of the candidates drops out, this means the Republican candidate will likely be chosen at the convention itself. This is, of course, how it was done in the old days, but recently candidates have nabbed the nomination before then. The GOP candidate may not be chosen until September 2008, leaving less than two months to campaign against Hillary. Ouch.
I still think there’s a possibility of Romney gathering momentum after early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan, but Giuliani’s strategy is to wait until Feb. 5, where he hopes to win California and other large states. Thompson looks likely to win South Carolina and perhaps Florida (although a poll published yesterday shows Romney inching up in Florida and within striking distance of Thompson).
Anyway, a very good analysis on a very competitive nomination process.