Well, it’s been a while since I made my “prophesy” back on Dec 3, 2011 that Gingrich would be the Republican nominee. [1]
Since then it’s been an amazing ride. I’m sure Seth R (who I have a bet with) thought he had me pretty much beat even just a few days ago back when Mitt Romney was ‘inevitable’ (for the nth time) and was going to walk away with wins in all three of the first primaries — a feat no Republican nominee has ever done.
So I want to quote myself from what I wrote back here on Dec 8th in a follow on post:
I suppose the reason I disagree with the experts is that I feel that these experts aren’t taking the true prejudice 1/3 of Evangelicals feel towards Mormons into consideration because they don’t really understand it. They are still thinking in terms of normal rational behavior, not prejudice behavior. To me, it seems obvious that these experts keep getting it wrong precisely because they don’t understand the level of prejudice that exists. So, for example, they keep predicting that Romney is ‘inevitable’ or what have you.
But Romney was inevitable! Seth R put up a link to this article explaining (back then) why the Republican power brokers would not back him and how it was impossible to win without them. Gingrich is wrong across the board. He’s a bad person, a bad candidate, a bad example of social conservativism, a bad everything really. There should be no way he could get the nomination.
Continue reading →