This article takes a look at current demographic trends and predicts that Europe, like the United States, will end up becoming more religious and conservative over the coming decades, not less so. And the author is not just talking about Muslim religious identity — he believes Christianity will rebound as well.
Here is the nut graph of the attached article:
The pivotal question is where the balance lies between religious fertility and religious abandonment in the secular cutting-edge societies of France and Protestant Europe. The population balance in these countries stands at roughly 53 per cent non-religious to 47 per cent religious. My projections, based on demographic differences between the populations and current patterns of religious abandonment, suggest that the secular population will continue to grow at a decelerating rate for three or four more decades, to peak at around 55 per cent. The proportion of secular people will then begin to decline between 2035 and 2045. The momentum behind secularisation in the most secular countries is a reflection of the religious abandonment of the pre-1945 generations, which overwhelmed the fertility advantage of the faithful. The end of apostasy in more recent generations means a population more religious at the end of the 21st century than at its beginning. As in the case of the Mormons or early Christians, demography rather than mass conversion will be the main agent of change.
For those new to such fertility discussions, it is worth pointing out that a society needs to have 2.1 babies per woman to sustain itself (absent immigration). Most of Europe has fertility far under that level, so populations are decreasing. In general, conservative religious people are much more likely to have children than liberal secular people. This is true in the United States and Europe. This has cause many demographers to predict that the United States is likely to be much more conservative in coming years because all of the liberals are failing to produce children.
Later on in the article, we get this:
Western Europe will initially emerge as a more religious society, but not a fundamentalist one. Even so, religiosity—as belief rather than attendance—significantly predicts a more conservative ideological orientation. Though we are unlikely to see the rise of evangelical Christian politics in Europe, we may find a long-term drift towards more conservative social values. Europeans will become more “traditional” on moral issues like abortion, family values, religious education and gay marriage.
I would encourage you to read the entire article. There are of course many potential objections, including the valid point that it is impossible to predict whether all of these children raised in religious households will stay religious. I’d also make the argument that as society becomes more secular, the acceptable middle of discourse is likely to change. For example, 40 years ago there would have been widespread consensus that sodomy should be illegal. Now, almost nobody makes that argument. There may be an unrecognizable societal concensus on other “family values” issues 40 years from now, so the “religious conservative fall-back position” may be something that seems very liberal to us today.
Nonetheless, an interesting article and worth reading.